Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
